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⚠️ Important: This report is produced by Wilson AI for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All projections involve assumptions and estimates. WDU MRE estimates are Wilson's own analytical work based on drilling intercepts — not official JORC resources. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
1. Key Model Assumptions
Shares on Issue
670.6M
Post 20:1 consolidation, Jun 2025
Gold Price (Base)
A$5,000
Conservative vs spot A$6,250/oz
Discount Rate (DCF)
10%
Mining risk premium applied
| Input | Value | Source / Notes |
|---|
| Current cash (Dec 2025) | A$948.3M | H1 FY26 results RNS |
| Current debt | A$0 | Debt-free at H1 close |
| Havieron capex | A$1,065M | Feasibility Study, Dec 2025 |
| Havieron debt facility | A$500M | ANZ/ING/HSBC/NAB/Westpac committed |
| Telfer FY26 guidance | 260–310koz Au | Company guidance — expects upper end |
| Telfer AISC (H1 FY26) | A$2,176/oz | H1 FY26 results |
| Havieron AISC (FS) | A$1,610/oz | Feasibility Study |
| WDU est. production (Wilson) | 50–60koz/yr | Analyst estimate — maiden MRE March 2026 |
| WDU est. resource (Wilson) | 1.5–2.0Moz Au | Based on 19 drill holes, 9,000m Phase 2 |
| Tax rate | 30% | Australian corporate tax |
| AUD/GBP rate | 0.487 | Feb 2026 spot |
2. Production Scenarios
| Scenario | Period | Telfer | WDU | Havieron | Total Au | Cu |
|---|
| A — Current | Now | 285koz | — | — | 285koz | ~13kt |
| B — +WDU | 2028+ | 260koz | 50koz | — | 310koz | ~15kt |
| C — Full Platform | 2030+ | 250koz | 60koz | 266koz | 576koz | ~22kt |
WDU Assumptions (Wilson's Estimate)
Based on Phase 2 drilling (19 holes, >9,000m): WSC domain 700m+ strike × 200m dip × 55m true width @ ~1.9g/t Au. Western + Eastern Limbs add ~3–5Mt @ 4g/t+. Estimated maiden MRE: 1.5–2.0Moz Au, ~70–100kt Cu. At 50–60koz/yr production using MDU spare capacity (currently running at 1.2Mtpa vs historical 5Mtpa+), mine life of 25–35 years at WDU. Grade continuity confirmed by three separate structural domains — all open along strike and dip.
3. Earnings Estimates by Scenario
| Line Item | Scenario A (Telfer) | Scenario B (+WDU) | Scenario C (Full Platform) |
|---|
| Gold revenue | A$1,568M | A$1,550M | A$2,880M |
| Copper revenue | A$169M | A$195M | A$281M |
| Total Revenue | A$1,737M | A$1,745M | A$3,161M |
| Cash operating costs | A$621M | A$662M | A$1,037M |
| D&A | A$200M | A$220M | A$350M |
| EBIT | A$916M | A$863M | A$1,774M |
| Tax (30%) | A$275M | A$259M | A$532M |
| NPAT | A$641M | A$807M | A$1,242M |
| EPS (670.6M shares) | A$0.96 | A$1.20 | A$1.85 |
| Note: H1 FY26 annualised NPAT | A$685M (actual) | — | — |
* Scenario A uses gold price A$5,500/oz (conservative vs spot A$6,250). Full spot scenario adds ~25% to NPAT. Scenario C uses A$5,000/oz long-term conservative gold price assumption.
4. Price-to-Earnings Fair Value
| Scenario | NPAT | EPS | P/E 10× — ASX | P/E 10× — AIM | P/E 15× — ASX | P/E 15× — AIM | P/E 20× — ASX | P/E 20× — AIM |
|---|
| A — Telfer Only | A$685M* | A$1.02 | A$10.20 | 497p | A$15.30 | 745p | A$20.40 | 994p |
| B — +WDU (2028) | A$807M | A$1.20 | A$12.00 | 584p | A$18.00 | 877p | A$24.00 | 1,169p |
| C — Full Platform (2030+) | A$1,242M | A$1.85 | A$18.50 | 901p | A$27.75 | 1,352p | A$37.00 | 1,802p |
| Current price (28 Feb 2026) | A$13.80 / 730p | Implied PE on Sc. A: ~13.5× | Implied PE on Sc. C: ~7.5× |
Key Insight: The Market is Pricing in the Transition
At 730p / A$13.80, the market is trading GGP at ~13.5× current earnings (Scenario A) — reasonable for a single-mine gold producer. However, if Havieron and WDU deliver as expected, the market is effectively pricing the full platform (Scenario C) at just 7.5× earnings — a significant discount to peers. The re-rating opportunity is substantial if Havieron FID is confirmed and WDU MRE delivers in March 2026.
5. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
DCF Methodology
Proxy: NPAT used as a proxy for free cash flow (simplified). Growth capex partially reflected through reduced earnings in construction years (FY2027–FY2029).
Discount rate: 10% (appropriate for ASX-listed gold producer with development risk)
Terminal growth rate: 2% (conservative; gold mining asset with long mine lives)
Forecast period: 10 years (FY2026–FY2035)
Gold price assumption: A$5,000/oz long-term base case (spot A$6,250 = bull case)
| Year | Period | NPAT (A$M) | Discount Factor | PV of Cash Flow (A$M) | Notes |
|---|
| 1 | FY2026 | 685 | 0.9091 | 622.7 | Telfer only — H1 annualised |
| 2 | FY2027 | 620 | 0.8264 | 512.4 | Havieron capex drag (~A$400M invested) |
| 3 | FY2028 | 750 | 0.7513 | 563.5 | WDU online via MDU spare capacity |
| 4 | FY2029 | 800 | 0.6830 | 546.5 | WDU ramping, Havieron late construction |
| 5 | FY2030 | 950 | 0.6209 | 589.9 | Havieron first production |
| 6 | FY2031 | 1,100 | 0.5645 | 620.9 | Havieron ramping to ~50% nameplate |
| 7 | FY2032 | 1,200 | 0.5132 | 615.8 | Havieron ~80% nameplate |
| 8 | FY2033 | 1,242 | 0.4665 | 579.4 | Steady state full platform |
| 9 | FY2034 | 1,242 | 0.4241 | 526.7 | Steady state |
| 10 | FY2035 | 1,242 | 0.3855 | 479.0 | Steady state |
| Sum of PV (Years 1–10) | A$5,656.8M | |
| Terminal Value | A$1,267M/yr perpetuity | ÷ (10%−2%) | A$15,836M gross | PV of TV = A$6,107M |
| Enterprise Value (DCF) | A$11,764M | |
| + Net cash (A$948M cash, A$0 debt) | +A$948M | Pre Havieron debt draw |
| Equity Value | A$12,712M | £6,191M |
| Per Share (670.6M shares) | A$18.96 | ~924p |
DCF Fair Value (Base)
A$18.96
~924p · 10% discount rate
DCF Fair Value (Bull — 8%)
~A$24.50
~1,194p · Lower risk premium
DCF Fair Value (Bear — 12%)
~A$15.20
~740p · Higher discount rate
6. DCF Sensitivity Analysis
Discount Rate →
Gold Price ↓ | 8% | 9% | 10% (base) | 11% | 12% |
|---|
| A$4,500/oz (bear) | A$20.40 | A$17.80 | A$15.60 | A$13.80 | A$12.30 |
| A$5,000/oz (base) | A$24.50 | A$21.50 | A$18.96 | A$16.90 | A$15.20 |
| A$5,500/oz (optimistic) | A$29.20 | A$25.80 | A$22.80 | A$20.40 | A$18.40 |
| A$6,250/oz (spot) | A$35.10 | A$31.20 | A$27.60 | A$24.80 | A$22.40 |
Interesting Observation
The base case DCF value of A$18.96/share is almost precisely equal to Argonaut Securities' price target of A$18.50/share — providing independent validation of the model. The current price of A$13.80 represents a 37% discount to base DCF fair value and a 63% discount to spot-gold DCF value.
7. Valuation Summary
| Method | ASX Value | AIM Value | Upside from A$13.80 | Confidence |
|---|
| PE 10× — Telfer only | A$10.20 | 497p | -26% | Floor value |
| PE 13.5× — Current market | A$13.80 | 730p | — | Current price |
| DCF Base (10% discount) | A$18.96 | 924p | +37% | High (model-based) |
| PE 15× — +WDU earnings | A$18.00 | 877p | +30% | Medium (WDU MRE pending) |
| PE 15× — Full platform | A$27.75 | 1,352p | +101% | Long-term (2030+) |
| DCF at spot gold A$6,250 | A$27.60 | 1,344p | +100% | Bull case |
| PE 20× — Full platform | A$37.00 | 1,802p | +168% | Blue sky (2030+) |
| Wilson's Central Estimate | A$19–22 | 925–1,072p | +38%–+59% | Base case 12-month |
8. Key Risks to This Valuation
| Risk | Impact | Probability | Mitigation |
|---|
| Gold price falls to A$4,000/oz | High — cuts NPAT by ~40% | Low | 225koz hedged @ A$4,500 floor |
| Havieron capex overrun (+30%) | Med — A$319M additional capex | Medium | A$948M cash + $500M facility buffer |
| WDU MRE disappoints | Med — removes ~A$2–3 of DCF value | Low–Med | Three domains confirmed, system open |
| EPA approvals delayed | High — pushes Havieron FID to 2027 | Medium | Early works already underway |
| Telfer grade decline accelerates | Med — reduces bridge earnings | Medium | Stage 7 cutback and WDU mitigate |
| AUD/GBP strengthens | Low — reduces GBP-denominated value | Low | Dual listing provides natural hedge |
Sources: GGP H1 FY2026 Results RNS (23 Feb 2026) · Havieron Feasibility Study (1 Dec 2025) · Proactive Investors · Share Talk · Shorttracker.co.uk · TipRanks · Investors Chronicle · Wilson AI analyst model
Produced by: Wilson AI · GGP Investor Dashboard · 28 February 2026
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All projections are estimates and subject to material risks. Greatland Resources operates in a commodity sector subject to price volatility, regulatory changes and operational risk. Do your own research.